Tuesday 29th July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9943
Dollar continues its decline against majors.
US Dollar:
Yesterday saw the dollar weaken against its major rivals, after the US
stock markets dropped as financial
shares were sold off. The greenback was also feeling the heat from oil
prices that crept back up towards $125
a barrel on futures markets, indicating that any measurable relief at
the gas pumps for US consumers is still a
way away. The dollar dropped over a cent against the pound, starting out
the morning session at $1.9841
and then falling to over $1.9980. The fall against the euro was not as
severe, but there was still a drop of
over half a cent from $1.5680 to $1.5750. A currency strategist at Wells
Fargo in New York commented that
the dollars slight decline yesterday is mostly consolidation after last
weeks gains, and the consolidation will
probably last into he first half of this week until the US GDP on
Thursday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
Data at 3.00pm: Consumer Confidence expected at 50 from 50.4 previous.
Friday 25th July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9880
US Dollar:
The dollar continued its rally against the euro for a third day
yesterday, as investors focused on weak data
from Europe and shrugged off reports showing the US economy is sill
sluggish. The dollar made a gain of
0.85% on the pound, from $1.9988 to hit $1.9818. Against the euro the
gains were more modest as the dollar
pulled back just under half a cent.
Reports showing Japanese exports
declined for the first time in about
five years, and some troublesome data in Europe, persuaded some
investors that the rest of the world could
soon be just as bad off as the US.
Existing home sales continued to fall
in June and the median prices also
dropped as inventories crept higher. Home sales slid to a 4.86 million
annual rate, a 2.6% decrease from
May’s unrevised 4.99 million annual pace. The number of US workers
filing new claims for unemployment
benefits soared last week, matching a three year high, suggesting no
stabilization in sight for labour markets.
Data at 3.00pm: New Home Sales MoM expected at –1.8% from –2.5%
previous.
Thursday 24th July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9938
Oil falls again as signs of demand weakens, now trading at $123.89.
US Dollar:
We saw the dollar rally yesterday for a second day running, helped by
falling oil prices and repeated talk
about eventual need for US interest rate hikes to curtail inflation. The
greenback took over a cent of the euro
to trade from $1.5798 to hit $1.5667 this morning. Over half a cent was
also pulled back on the pound as
cable has dropped below the $2 barrier. As risk appetite increased, the
dollar also advanced against low yielding
currencies. The greenback reached a two-week high against the yen of
Y107.97.
Fed bank districts
said the economy slowed somewhat in June & July, according to the
central bank’s beige book, a collection of
anecdotes about the economy used by policy makers in deciding whether to
change interest rates.
Data at 7.00pm: Existing Home Sales expected at –1.0% from 2%. Speakers:
NY Fed’s Geithner at
3.00pm
Wednesday 23rd July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9920
Dollar stages a strong rally after comments by Plosser & Paulson +
lower oil.
The dollar staged a strong rally yesterday as a top Federal Reserve
official said interest rates may soon need
to be lifted and oil prices dropped by about $3 per barrel. Philly Fed
President Charles Plosser, a voting member
this year on the Fed’s rate-setting committee, said “To prevent recent
inflation from continuing to plague
the economy, I believe the current very accommodative stance of monetary
policy will need to be reversed.”
This was then confounded by US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson who
repeated his mantra that a strong
dollar is important for the nations interests, which provided more
background support for the US currency.
From midday yesterday, the dollar roared back with vengeance against the
pound, and five hours later finished
nearly two cents higher at $1.9898. There was a similar move against the
euro with a gain from
$1.5942 to trade at $1.5756.
Data at 7.00pm: fed’s Beige Book. Speakers: Fed’s Mishkin at 2.00pm,
Fed’s Kohn at 4.15pm.
Monday 21st July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0405
Dollar found support on Friday from some stability in stock markets.
US Dollar:
The dollar found some support at the end of the week after US stock
markets and oil prices began to calm
down following a week of turbulence. The stability in stock markets on
Friday allowed a bit more risk appetite
to filter back into currency markets, pushing down the low-yielding yen
slightly against the euro and dollar.
The dollar also found support from a better than expected earnings
report from Citigroup.
Against the single
currency, the rates are very range bound, staying in between
$1.5880—$1.5810 for the last few trading days.
Against the pound the dollar has made a slight move to break below the
$1.99 levels, after poor economic
data helped push cable down.
This week, data to look out for will be May
House prices index on Tuesday, and
last months home sales Thursday and Friday.
Data at 3.00pm: leading Indicators expected at –0.1% from 0.1% previous.
Friday 18th July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9915
Dollar gains from weak oil prices.
US Dollar:
The dollar rallied across the board on Thursday, rebounding from sharp
losses that accumulated since the
start of the week, on a surge in US stocks, a drop in crude oil and
bullish data from the beleaguered US housing
market. One of the most oppressive problems in the American economy has
long been viewed as oil
prices. There is a considerable view that if you get oil prices lower,
the US economy will recover, giving some
much needed support to the greenback.
The dollar is now a full 2 cents
better off against the pound from its
worst point earlier in the week to trade at $1.9949, and just under 2
cents better off against the euro. US
June housing starts unexpectedly surged because of a change to New York
City building codes. Housing starts
increased 9.1%, with economists expecting a drop by 1.2%. US Jobless
Claims have risen slightly, but only
retraced about one-third of the previous week’s drop, suggesting some
stabilization in labour markets.
No data.
Thursday 17th July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9996
Dollar finds support amongst Fed Chairman's comments & FOMC minutes.
US Dollar:
The dollar has now fought back most of the losses made at the start of
the week, as we have seen the greenback
make over a cent gain on the euro and close to a 2 cent recovery on the
pound. Last nights comments
by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke highlighted the Fed’s position against
inflation. He reassured Congress that
curbing inflation remained the feds goal, even amid conflicting
pressures from the deepening US downturn,
worsening financial turmoil and rising American joblessness. This gave
the dollar some support as it rallied
against the majors.
The Fed minutes were released yesterday and it was
revealed that monetary policy would
likely remain on hold amid ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for the
markets, economy and inflation.
Reading into the minutes, concerns about inflation and inflation
expectations, policy makers anticipated that
the next policy move could well be an increase in the funds rate,
lending support to the dollar.
Data at 1.30pm: Housing Starts expected 965k from 975k previous,
Building Permits expected at
970k from 969k previous.
Wednesday 16th July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0101
Dollar falls to record low against the euro & four month low against
sterling.
US Dollar:
The greenback had a rollercoaster ride yesterday as we saw a cent and a
half movement on EUR/USD and
over a two cent move on cable. The dollar started to weaken off just
after 9.30am yesterday and soon broke
through the key $1.60 barrier on EUR/USD, to post an all time record
high of $1.6037.
Cable also saw a large
move as the dollar weakened off against sterling and broke through the
key $2 barrier to hit $2.0155—a four
month low. It seems a lot of stops were taken out when cable went
through the $2 level, with GBP/USD soon
sailing through the $2.01 level within about 20 minutes. This move was
despite the fact that the eurozone
and the UK saw poor economic data posted in the morning session, and
seemed to be a move in the run up to
key speeches to be addressed later in the afternoon in the US.
The
dollars fight back came around 4pm as
Fed Chairman Bernanke addressed the senate. Among various points raised
were that he seemed to take
back his prior statement that the risks are more skewed toward inflation
and growth may start to look
brighter going forward and also stating that the FOMC were to keep near
term interest rates steady throughout
2008
Data at 1.30pm: CPI YoY expected at 4.5% from 4.2% previous,
2.15pm: Industrial Production
expected at 0.0% from –0.2% previous. Speakers: 3pm—Bernanke. 7.00pm:
Fed Minutes
Friday 11th July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9771
New York Times report quotes sources as saying U.S government
considering taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
US Dollar:
The Dollar fell against the Euro yesterday, after Federal Reserve
Chairman Bernanke warned of “ongoing”
financial market turmoil. “There is still a strong element of risk
aversion directed at markets right now and its
reflected in dollar selling,” said Steven Englander, head of G10
currency strategy in New York at Lehman
Brothers.
San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen further stoked the market’s
concern and helped the Euro. She said
the housing slump, financial market turmoil and surging commodity prices
are the top concerns for U.S Federal
Reserve officials and the combination presents a considerable challenge
for policymaking.
Thursday 10th July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9761
Buck down against rivals on tough talk from ECB & ongoing financial
concern.
US Dollar:
The dollar fell back yesterday versus its rivals on tough talk from the
European Central Bank and ongoing
financial market concerns. The dollar has lost over one and a half cents
on sterling, from $1.9680 at a low
yesterday to hit $1.9838 in this mornings trade. Against the euro there
was a cent loss as the greenback was
trading at $1.5660 yesterday, to hit $1.5760 at a high this morning.
Adding to the dollars bane, Fitch Ratings
named Merrill Lynch at imminent risk of downgrade because of additional
write-downs and the amount of
debt due to mature in the next year.
Looking ahead to today, we will see
figures released for Initial Jobless
Claims which are expected to drop from last month. Most important
though, is likely to be Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony on financial market regulation around
4.00pm.
Data at 2.30pm: Initial Jobless Claims expected at 395k from 404k
previous. Speakers at 4.00pm:
Bernanke & Paulson. 9.30pm: Fed’s Yellen.
Wednesday 9th July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9687
Dollar rebounds as Fed indicates its ready to extend bank aid.
US Dollar:
The dollar rose yesterday versus its key rivals as the Fed announced it
was ready to extend bank aid. Large
investment banks will be able to access emergency cash from the Federal
Reserve into next year if market
turmoil persists. This gives a strong signal that the growing concern
among policymakers that financial strain
could continue for some time. The signal from Ben Bernanke, Fed
Chairman, is likely to smooth Wall Street, in
that it confirms Fed support for investment banks through the credit
crises.
Us stocks rose on this yesterday
and the dollar rallied against the euro and pound. The dollar was also
helped as world oil prices fell to their
lowest levels in nearly two weeks. This is the usual relationship we see
play out where oil is being sold off,
and the dollar is being bought.
Data at 1.00pm: MBA Mortgage Applications
Tuesday 8th July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9770
The G8 summit has agreed to set a global target of cutting greenhouse
emissions.
US Dollar:
Yesterday the Dollar declined against the Euro after a sudden drop in
U.S Stock Markets spooked currency
investors and convinced them to take profits from last week’s rise in
the greenback. San Francisco Fed President
Janet Yellen said the fragility of the U.S housing market and bank
systems could further “kink up” financial
markets before an anticipated recovery in 2009. “Things could get worse
before they get better” Yellen
said. Headline inflation is likely to remain ”much higher” than she
would like over the next few quarters until
commodities prices level off.
12:30 GMT Fed Reserve President Bernanke speaks
Monday 7th July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9741
Dollar carries on its bullish trend from last week.
US Dollar:
The greenback managed to keep hold of its gains against the majors at
the end of last week, despite the national
holiday on Friday. The dollar has made over 2 cents on the euro, and
over 2 and a half cents on sterling
from this time last week.
The Euro/Dollar rally was started by the ECB’s
comments on no more immediate
future rate hikes, which was leading to the interest rate differential
in that currency pair widen even further.
Neither the eurozone or the US seem to want the gap to grow anymore.
Looking at cable, the pound isn’t
looking to find any support from the impending bank rate decision in the
UK later this week, so we may see
more dollar strength further down the line. First support level is at
$1.9705, with GBP/USD trading at $1.9735
this morning.
No data today. Speakers: Fed’s Yellen to speak at 5.00pm.
Wednesday 2nd July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9905
Better than expected ISM report fails to rally the dollar against the
euro.
US Dollar:
The dollar declined modestly yesterday against the euro in the run up to
the ECB meeting tomorrow. Against
the pound, we saw the dollar make back some gains after poor data from
the UK hurt sterling. The EUR-USD
move was surprising as we did see better than expected ISM report on the
US manufacturing sector, as oppose
to the UK and eurozone which saw much worse reports in the same sector.
The continuing record high
oil prices seen over the last few days have also depressed overall
sentiment for the greenback.
Data at 3.00pm: Factory Orders expected at 0.5% from 1.1% previous.
Speakers: Fed’s Misshkin
at 5.00pm
Tuesday 1st July 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9983
Oil surges to new record high of $143.67—tensions rise in the Middle
East.
US Dollar:
The dollar is continuing to feel the pressure build on all sides as the
majors reinforce their strangle hold on
the greenback. The dollar looks set to test the $2 level against
sterling which could come today, and the
$1.60 level is not to far off on the euro.
With inflation pressure
hitting a 16 year high in the eurozone, we
may be seeing the $1.60 level sooner rather than later as the ECB looks
set to raise interest rates later in the
week.
In an annual report released yesterday, the Bank for International
Settlements cast a gloomy prognosis
for the global economy and inflation, particularly for the US citing
turmoil in the financial markets –slowing
real growth and temporary rising inflation. Data at 3.00pm: ISM
Manufacturing expec at 49 from 49.6
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I hope this information assists you, but please note that it
is accumulated from the views of various political, economic and currency
analysts, and cannot be construed as financial advice.