Monday 31st March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9850
Dollar holding firm ahead of key economic data to be released this
week.
US Dollar:
The dollar has held firm against the euro since Friday, staying around
the €1.58 levels. Against sterling the dollar has rallied on the back of
weak economic data from the UK. The dollar has gained over 2 cents
against the pound since Fridays session, starting out from $2.0090 to be
trading around $1.9850.
This week we have important data to be released from the US with the US
jobs report due. Some analysts say the dollar may yet have a chance to
rebound on the payrolls and other data this week. Robert Lynch ‘currency
strategist at HSBC said ”With the dollar already at such low levels and
with a fairly dire economic and financial backdrop already expected,
good news on those fronts can have a disproportionally positive impact
on the currency”.
Data at 1.45pm: Chicago Domestic Product expected at 46.5 from 44.5
previous. Speaker: Fed;s Yellen at 10.00pm.
Thursday 27th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0098
Dollar suffers after poor housing data.
The dollar had a poor day yesterday as the greenback suffered on the
back of poor economic data. Orders for durable goods, an indicator of
business spending, slid 1.7% in February, marking the second month of
declines.
New home sales fell last month as well to the lowest mark in 13 years,
falling by 1.8% to an annual rate of 590,000. This figure marked the
lowest sales pace since 559,000 in February 1995. The dollar lost over 2
cents against the euro and had a mixed day against the pound. Initially
the dollar strengthened against the pound as the greenback benefited
from comments by the BoE, gaining just over half a cent, but then the
data was released in the US and normal service of selling of the dollar
resumed, losing over 1 full cent to trade near $2.0055.
Data at 12.30: GDP 4Q expected at 0.6% unchanged. Speakers: Stearn,
Lockhart around 4.00pm.
Wednesday 26th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0050
US dollar gives up its gains as European markets resume dollar
selling.
The dollar gave back some of its recent gains yesterday as European
markets resumed normal business after the extended Easter break. Data
out of the US also weighed on the dollar as weaker than expected
consumer confidence put the spotlight back on a stagnant economy and the
possibility of more interest-rate reductions.
Consumer confidence was expected to come in at 74.0 from 75.0 the month
previous. The figure released showed the level had plunged to 64.5 and
the worst since March 2003, just ahead of the US invasion of Iraq.
The dollar has lost nearly $2 against the pound, from $1.9852 to $2.0034
and against the euro the dollar has also lost around $2 from $1.5425 to
$1.5657.
Today the markets will focus on Durable goods orders and New home sales.
Data at 1.30pm: Durable Goods orders expected at 0.7% from –5.3% prev,
At 3.00pm we have New Home Sales expec at 579k from 588k prev.
Speakers—Fed’s Evans & Fisher to speak at 5.00pm and 6.00pm.
Tuesday 25th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9905
US dollar benefits over bank holiday weekend.
The US dollar benefited from most of the European markets closing for
Easter breaks and better than expected
economic data released yesterday.
Since Thursday evening we saw the
dollar gain over 1 cent against
the euro to hit $1.5339, but has since given up some of its gains in
European trade. The dollar also gained
against the pound by just under 2 cents, but has also given back most of
the gains this morning to trade at
$1.9910.
Yesterday we saw better than expected existing-home sales
figures which rose 2.9% in February
compared to January, the first increase in seven months.
The reading
beat analysts expectations for another
decline and signalled that some buyers are taking advantage of sharply
falling home prices.
Data at 2.00pm: Consumer Confidence, House Price Index and Richmond Fed
Manuf Index.
Thursday 20th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9785
Dollar makes recovery and gains back most of the weeks losses.
US Dollar:
The dollar made a recovery yesterday as a steep sell off in commodities
and a plunging UK pound put a bandage on a bleeding dollar, helping the
US currency recoup all of the early losses against the euro.
The dollar hit a low of $1.59 at the start of the week but has finished
of nicely with a recovery of 4.5 cents to be trading at $1.5549 this
morning. The greenback also made a gain of over 1.5 cents against the
pound. Much of the dollar recovery is on the back of weaker commodity
prices and the further unwinding of European currencies prompted by the
selling off in sterling/dollar as a result of the UK credit fears which
hit the banking sector Wednesday morning.
Data at 12.30: Initial Jobless claims and at 2.00pm we have Philly Fed
and Leading Indicators.
Wednesday 19th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0115
Dollar makes small gains after Fed move.
US Dollar:
The federal reserve delivered a fed funds rate cut to 2.25% from 3% last
night. Many investors were expecting
the Fed to cut rates to 2% but appeared to overcome their early
disappointment. In its statement with the
rate decision, the Fed said “recent information indicates that the
outlook for economic activity has weakened
further,” but also that “uncertainty about the inflation outlook has
increased.”
The dollar made gains against a
basket of currencies straight after the rate cut, gaining over 1.5 cents
against the euro from $1.58 to
$1.5620 and just under 2 cents against sterling from $2.0258 to 2.0089.
The greenback also pulled back
against the yen, trading close to Y99.00. Data released yesterday
supported the notion that the economy is
sliding while costs are rising.
Home construction fell in February:
housing starts fell 0.6%, while building permits
plummeted 7.8%.
Data at 11.00am: MBA mortgage Applications.
Tuesday 18th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0069
Dollar makes back some gains after the weekends losses.
US Dollar:
In early morning trade yesterday, the dollar hit record lows against the
euro, Swiss franc and yen on worries about US banking problems, but
later rebounded as investors began reducing riskier bets across asset
classes
and moved back into the dollar.
We saw the dollar fall to 2.0397 against
sterling on Monday morning, but then recover a full 3 cents to 1.9970,
and against the euro the dollar started out at $1.59 but then clawed
back some losses to close at $1.5729.
This morning the dollar seems to
be under pressure again, as normal
business seems to be resumed of more pressure on the dollar and the
markets look ahead to today's meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting
federal Open Market Committee. Markets expect the FOMC to cut its key
federal funds target rate by half a percent, maybe as much as a full
percent to 2%. Such a drastic cut would likely lead to more dollar
selling.
Data at 12.30: Housing Starts expected at 995k from 1012k previous,
Building Permits at 1023k from 1048k previous. 6.15pm we have the
Federal Open Market rate Committee decision expected to cut 50—100
points.
Monday 17th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0156
Investment banking giant Bear Stearns sold to J P Morgan after
collapse.
US Dollar:
What a weekend for the dollar! The greenback has been smashed left right
and centre since Friday as the
collapse of the US’s 5th largest investment bank ’Bear Stearns’ weighed
heavily on the US economy.
As a
result, the US Federal Reserve, in a extraordinarily rare weekend move,
took bold action Sunday evening by
cutting it’s discount rate, a lending rate to financial institutions, to
3.25% from 3.5%, effective immediately.
The Fed also created another lending facility for big investment banks
to secure short-term loans. A week
ago, 100 basis point cut by the Fed may have seemed unthinkable to some,
but now a cut from 3% to 2% is
entirely possible.
The Fed meets tomorrow for its next review. From
Friday, the dollar lost over 2% against
the euro to hit yet another record low. We also saw the dollar drop over
3% against the Japanese Yen to fall
below Y97.00.
Data at 12.30: Current Account Balance expected at -$184.4B from
-$178.5B, Empire manufacturing expected
at -36.3 from –11.7 previous. At 1.15pm we have Industrial Production
and at 5.00pm - housing data.
Friday 14th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0304
Collapsed hedge fund Carlyle Capital sparks fears for Bear Stearns
shares.
US Dollar:
The dollar plummeted to record lows yesterday as retail sales figures
confirmed that the US is in recession
and concern intensified about spreading distress in the hedge fund
sector. Retail sales came in negative 0.6%
from an expected 0.2% rise.
In a turbulent day of trading, the US dollar
tumbled against the Yen, breaking
through the Y100 to the dollar for the first time since 1995, before
recovering to Y100.79. The greenback
dropped to a record low against the euro as it broke the $1.56
barrier—at which point Goldman Sachs estimated
that the eurozone had overtaken the US as the worlds biggest economy
measured by market exchange
rates—before easing slightly.
The dollar was also down to a record low
for the year against sterling as it hit
over $2.03.
The Fed’s Open Market Committee meets next Tuesday and is
widely expected to lower interest
rates, with many analysts forecasting a drop of 0.50%. However, in the
past few weeks investors have been
questioning whether another rate cut will help the economy.
Data at 12.30: Consumer Price Index MoM expected at 0.3% from 0.4%
previous .
At 2.00pm we have the
University of Michigan Conference and then the Fed’s Chairman ‘Bernanke’
to speak at 5.00pm.
Thursday 13th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0351
US dollar breaks through key Y100 against the Japanese Yen.
US Dollar:
The see-saw story of the dollar continued yesterday as the greenback
gave up all of its gains it made the day before when the Fed announced
its $200bn loan package to the major banks. We have seen the dollar
loose nearly 2 cents against the euro and over 1 cent against the pound.
Its seems that the dollar is very eager to strengthen on the back of any
help by the fed and the markets will react in a positive way for the
greenback, but as quick as the rise comes for the dollar, the quicker it
seems to fall as normality seems to be re-installed
as the selling off of the dollar continues.
The dollar has also broke a key level against the Japanese Yen as we
have seen the key Y100 level breached.
Data at 12.30: Import price Index, Advance Retail Sales, Initial Jobless
Claims and Continuing Claims.
Wednesday 12th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0112
The Fed acting with other central banks offers to lend up to $200bn.
US Dollar:
What a day for the dollar yesterday! We saw huge movements in its
position against both the euro and the pound. Initially the dollar lost
0.8% and 0.9% against the euro and pound respectively after strong data
from the euro-zone. But in afternoon trade, the greenback gained 1.2%
against the euro and over 1% against sterling after the Fed announced it
was, along with the ECB, Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank,
agreeing to loan investment banks money in exchange for debt, including
slumped mortgage-backed securities.
The idea is to create a market for assets that investors have recently
been too scared to buy. That freeze in demand has sent asset values
plummeting and caused huge losses for some of the worlds biggest banks.
But be aware on this recent strength on the dollar, it may only be a
temporary rebound!
Tuesday 11th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0091
Dollar holds firm against the euro and sterling.
US Dollar:
The dollar managed to hold it’s own against the euro and pound yesterday
as concerns about economic recession in the US sent a wave of risk
aversion across global markets, the Yen being the major benefactor.
The US had no bleak economic news to contend with yesterday, but instead
faced a steady drumbeat of negative news on companies exposed to
mortgages,
which is weighing on the dollar. Thursday’s report on retail sales and
Friday’s report on consumer prices will give Wall Street a better idea
of how much the average American is struggling with falling home values
and rising costs, and how aggressively the Federal reserve will need to
act when it meets next week.
Data at 12.30: Trade Balance expected at -$59.5B from -$58.8B.
Monday 10th March 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0170
US is almost certainly in a recession.
US Dollar:
The USD sank to fresh lows against the Euro on Friday as Non-Farm
Payrolls data came in dramatically lower than expected. The survey
showed the US economy shed 65,000 jobs in February. Any doubt
that the US is in the throes of a recession has been squelched.
The fear now is that poor employment figures will start weighing on the
economy as an additional burden on top of the collapse of the real
estate market and tightening credit conditions. This is known as a
‘negative feedback loop’ as financial market strains lead to a weaker
economy, which in turn leads to more financial turbulence.
Wall Street initially rallied on the news as they expect the Federal
Reserve to dramatically cut the Fed Funds rate. Goldman sees two 50 bps
cuts at the next two Fed meetings while HSBC has lowered its Fed funds
target to 1%.
Figures out today: 15:00 US Wholesale Trade
Friday 7th February 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
2.0145
Dollar continues decline—talk of emergency rate cut.
US Dollar:
The dollar had another bad day at the office yesterday, as it continued
to come under heavy pressure from a basket of currencies, notably the
euro. Comments by the ECB President sent the greenback spiralling as it
became clearer that the ECB are happy to hold on interest rate cuts,
while the Federal reserve, which has been slashing interest rates in
recent months to boost a sagging economy, keeps signalling the
likelihood of further interest rate cuts this month.
We mentioned this yesterday, but it seems there's a lot more talk about
“emergency” Fed rate cuts doing the rounds yesterday afternoon and this
morning. There is some speculation it may happen this afternoon if we
have very weak data from the US, with key Nonfarm Payrolls &
Unemployment Rate figures due at 1.30pm
Data at 1.30pm: Nonfarm Payrolls expected at 30k from –17k &
Unemployment expected at 5.0% from 54.9% previous
Pounds Dollars Currency News Archives
Thursday 6th February 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9969
Euro hits record high against greenback.
US Dollar:
The dollar was smashed yesterday as it took hits from all sides and hit
all time lows against the euro. The key $1.5300 was breached against the
single currency, and the dollar lost nearly 2 cents against sterling. At
around 4.00pm, news also trickled through that US Treasury Secretary
Hank Paulson had added to the overall bearish sentiment towards the US
currency.
The Fed’s beige Book report was released yesterday evening and it
indicated growth at the start of the year was sluggish and accompanied
by rising price pressures.
With the credit crunch steadily worsening and no bottom to the housing
slump in sight, the Federal Reserve appears poised to deliver another
steep interest-rate cut in two weeks time. But be aware, they may go
early on this, as we saw back on January 22nd.
Data at 3.00pm: Pending Home Sales expected at –0.8% from –1.5% previous
& Mortgage Delinquencies.
Speakers today: Fed’s Geithner at 6.00pm
Wednesday 5th February 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9753
Fed’s speakers yesterday appeared to be in opposition on economy.
US Dollar:
The dollar made back some of its losses yesterday against the euro and
sterling, but still remains under pressure. Comments made by Fed
officials were mixed as concerns were aired over downside risks to
growth and inflation. The Fed’s Mishkin fretted concerns over continued
downside risks to growth, in comments that suggested the Fed governor
remains willing to support more rate cuts, but the Fed’s Fisher carried
forward the theme of his dissent against the central bank’s last rate
cut and said he is very concerned about inflation.
Data at 3.00pm: ISM Non-Manu expected at 48.0 from 44.6 previous. At
7.00pm we have the Fed’s Beige Book.
Tuesday 4th February 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9860
Euro hits all time high against greenback.
US Dollar:
The dollar and euro seemed to trade punches yesterday in a very volatile
day on the currency markets. The greenback initially fell in its fifth
straight session against the euro hitting an all time low at $1.5275,
but then staged a storming comeback in mid afternoon, clawing back 2
cents against the single currency. It was a
similar story against sterling as a 1 cent loss earlier in the day was
soon made back before the close.
The ISM’s headline index of manufacturing activity in February dropped
to 48.3, its lowest level since April 2003. In further bleak news for
the US economy, official figures showed that construction spending
tumbled by 1.7% in January, in its sharpest drop for 14 years.
No data today but plenty of speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke to speak at
2.00pm, Fed’s Fisher & Mishkin to speak at 6.00pm.
Monday 3rd February 2008 Interbank G BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
1.9901
Dollar still weak Key ISM data today may continues greenbacks
decline.
US Dollar:
The dollar had a slight fight back on Friday, with profit taking helping
the greenback regain some of its losses. Today’s focus will be on the
ISM manufacturing data which if it declines further while key European
data remains
firm, may push the greenback further towards $1.53 against the euro. If
the ECB keep rates unchanged this week, and the Fed as expected, cut
rate on or before March 18th, we may see the dollar continue it’s slide
still further.
Michael Woolfolk at Bank of New York Mellon said “The dollar may bounce.
The more the dollar falls… the more likely we’ll have a dollar
correction, but it shouldn't be mistaken for a dollar bottom”. UBS says
its short term forecast for the euro-dollar is as the high end of
$1.50-$1.55 range.
Data at 3.00pm: ISM Manufacturing expected at 48.5 from 50.7 previous.
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I hope this information assists you, but please note that it
is accumulated from the views of various political, economic and currency
analysts, and cannot be construed as financial advice.